The Dynamic of the Race Shifts to Mezzo Forte! 147 Days to Go!

So today, with most of the basic introduction (finally) out of the way, EDC breaks out its wide-angle lens for a look at the overall look of the race so far - impressions, predictions, and complaints. With 5 months still to go, anything can happen; in politics, a week is a long time, and there's many weeks still to be fought for Obama and McCain. At this time in 2004, most people had never heard of the Swift Boat Veterans. There's always the possibility of an October Surprise that changes everything. World events are beyond the control of presidential candidates (and often presidents themselves), and so the context of this debate can change with one moment in international intrigue.

Still, the Democrats have many reasons to be optimistic this year, mostly because Americans are anything but. The economy continues to be the top concern of many Americans, and it's only going to get worse. Now, 86% of Americans believe we'll top $5 per gallon for gas by the end of the year. Traditionally, elections where economics are the concern favor the Democrats - they are the party of bread-and-butter domestic issues. That's why McCain has been doing everything in his power to keep the debate about diplomacy, Iran, and Iraq. But McCain has a significant disadvantage on economic issues to begin with, because he doesn't know anything about them. This is the guy who said (while running for President), "I don't know much about the economy." That's ridiculous. How does someone try to run this country without understanding economics? More important than McCain's lack of expertise, he's going to have to run while defending the Bush economic record. Tax cuts for the wealthy (which he flip-flopped on), less spending, and the inherently conservative approach of letting the market fix itself just don't sound appealing to most Americans who are "having moderate to heavy financial difficulties."

If the economy continues to be the focus of this election, John McCain will lose. As it is, he's going to have a tough time convincing industrial/agricultural workers in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan that he's the right man to right the ship. That's why he'll spend all his energy calling attention to Obama's plan to give Iran the Sudatenland. The typical Republican strategy is to make the election about fear: fear of foreign enemies, fear of nuclear war, fear of weak leadership. This year that strategy is more important than ever. If Americans are afraid about our security and our future, they will turn to a seasoned, steady hand (72 year-old McCain) because they don't trust the whippersnapper. If Americans are hopeful, and ready to believe in a brighter tomorrow, then Obama's message of hope and change is going to go over really well. This is where the uncontrollable world comes in. A terrorist attack against Americans or American allies would change the whole game. It could very well make Americans scared, and run to the strong embrace of John McCain. However, it could possibly illustrate that 8 years of the Bush Doctrine (see left picture) have failed to make us safer, that it is time for a new, diplomatic approach. That might be giving the American people too much credit, though.

This diplomacy versus appeasement issue will be a major one this whole way. With McCain trying to keep the focus on foreign policy, Obama's pledge to meet with hostile foreign leaders is the perfect opportunity to paint him as weak and naive. I think I missed the newspaper the day that "diplomacy" was officially changed to "cowardice," but I digress. Both these guys are gonna trot out the big military minds on each side in order to bolster their case that the other guy is stupid. Expect to see a lot of Joe Biden as Obama's attack dog on foreign policy(and probable Secretary of State) and General Clark as well (Secretary of Defense?). On the Republican side, we'll see Patreus again, maybe Powell as well (although he apparently is mulling an Obama endorsement). Somehow I doubt that our Commander-in-Chief or Rumsfeld will be anywhere near McCain any time soon.

The "Daddy Issue" is often decisive in presidential races. The GOP is always seen as stronger, and more decisive (i.e. better for military matters). This often helps them with the core undecided voters, namely Security Moms. With so many white women professing their undying love to Hillary Clinton, they're going to be a much sought-after group by both candidates.

In terms of electoral math, the race again looks promising for Obama. With his enormous fundraising advantage, and with help from DNC Chair Howard Dean's 50 State Strategy, Obama announced today his plans to run some sort of operation in every single state. Of course, it'll be scaled (the Ohio and Idaho offices will be different sizes), but the fact is that this will not only help bump up his popular vote numbers, but also help Democrats all over the ticket (from local to state to congressional races).

More specifically, the math favors him because of the few key swing states he seems to have an advantage in. If you believe current polling (which again is subject to ENORMOUS CHANGE), Obama has a very real shot to win Colorado (trending blue), New Mexico (Bill Richardson has an evil-Spock beard), Virginia (Jim Webb, Mark Warner are both rising stars who will help round up support), Pennsylvania (should stay blue), Missouri (more on why we should win there later), Iowa (they love him there), and Wisconsin (...cheese?). If his leads hold in these states, Obama could win the White House without winning Florida, Ohio, Indiana (which is roughly tied now), or Michigan, all of which he has decent chances at capturing. A Democrat winning the White House without Florida, Ohio, OR Michigan??? Am I dreaming? All those states should be the swing states that decide this race, but instead Obama gets to extend McCain to his breaking point, and try to beat him elsewhere, while simultaneously forcing him to work his heart out to win those states. He could even make him spend money in Texas.

The dynamics of the race could always change, but right now I'm feeling good. I urge my readers, if you go to college in ANY of the states I just mentioned, register to vote THERE, and cast your presidential vote THERE in November - it will count much more.

--> Missouri, why does it matter? Besides being the absolute center of America, it has voted for the winner of every presidential election since the beginning of the century except 1956 (what was wrong with Eisenhower?). Thus, it's a good windfall for any candidate. The Democrats have a good shot here, especially since a harsher voter registration law failed to get out of the state legislature as its session ended. This law would have toughened restrictions, and made it harder for the lower class voters, African-American voters, college students, and seniors to get their vote counted. With these groups free(r) to cast their ballots now, the Dems are in pretty good shape. Expect Obama to spend a lot of time in Missouri (and all along the Mississippi, from Missouri to Iowa to Wisconsin to Ohio, and yes I

know that it's incorrect geography, but geography and politics are two very different things).

Bottom Line: Right now, this election is all about Barack Obama. Many Americans are going to show up at the polls, and decide if they trust him to be our President. If they do, they vote for him. If they're nervous, they vote for McCain. The GOP will do everything it can to keep the dynamic this way, because if this contest becomes a referendum on John McCain, his age, his policies, or his party, Obama will be headed for a major landslide.

Picture of the Day:

The headline reads "Uncle Barack's Cabin." Oh, the Germans...

Quote of the Day: "Senator Obama says that I'm running for a Bush's third term. It seems to me he's running for Jimmy Carter's second." - John McCain. Of course, this statement means absolutely nothing to the younger voters that are already largely in Obama's camp, and Jimmy Carter references certainly won't sway college students very much.

So in conclusion, look forward to voting in November for either Jimmy Carter or George W. Bush.

Bullshit Without Bulls, and Some Worrying About Day 149 With 148 Days to Go!

So today, we begin a regular series here at EDC, focusing on blunders and strange moments that occur along the way to the White House. In this Youtube era, everything politicians say is watched very closely. This game of "gotcha" makes candidates less open, more formal, and less accessible to the press for fear of being taken down, a la George Allen, with a Macaca moment. Well, EDC loves games, and we will play them along with the rest of the media, although in this edition, we get to make fun of the media as well. No mercy here, as we present our first installment of:

Elephant & Donkey Crap (EDC for short....we're still working on the name).

Fecal Specimen #1: John McCain. It wouldn't be fair for us to start this series without focusing on the "Maverick" himself. Today, we learned of a Newsweek interview in which McCain was asked about a line in his prepared remarks for last Tuesday, a line in which he attacked the media for its "unfair" portrayal of Senator Clinton and her campaign (a thinly veiled grab for her supporters). McCain asserted to Newsweek that that sort of attack was not his style, and that he is "not in the business of commenting on the press and their coverage or not coverage." That's all well and good, except for the video of the speech in which he recites the line verbatum. Are we really at a point in American politics where the average citizen is paying so little attention that our leaders can blatantly deny recorded facts, and no one cares?

Fecal Specimen #2: FOX News. Of course, this is getting a little obvious, but I can't resist this one. After Obama's "I win" speech on Tuesday night, GOP News couldn't resist tearing into him on something, even if it was completely made up - plagarism. Take a look at the video, in which the anchor and correspondent both assert that Obama's speech sounds just like Mario Cuomo's. The only problem is that the lines sound nothing alike. Beyond the structural element of "you should go to places in American where people are suffering" (which every politician uses), the speeches are completely different. Obama talks about gas affordability, and Cuomo talks about farm subsidies and foreign steel. The two have nothing to do with eachother, besides both relating to the American economy, and Americans who are suffering due to our government's inaction. Then Obama talks about someone being unable to pay medical bills, and Cuomo talks about people living in sheds...what?? The only relation these two speeches have to each other is that they both use personal anecdotes, something that no politician ever does. And yet the Fox News staff doesn't even seem to notice - they prance around the television set, so cocky in having unearthed this damaging clip of Obama saying something that doesn't sound like Mario Cuomo. Gotcha!!! Your campaign is over now!! You sound a little bit like Mario Cuomo!! You sound eloquent!! Gotcha!

Other News of the Day:

--> Electoral-vote.com has a great story today analyzing the various explanations for why Clinton lost the primary when she seemed so destined to win it. Check it out. The main argument: she did everything wrong.

--> Ted Stevens is down 7% in a new poll to Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich. When his campaign was emailed asking for his comment, Ted Stevens muttered something about his corruption investigation by the US Justice Department, then put his message in, and it got in line. The Stevens-Reelection Campaign's official response: "Ted Stevens isn't just a truck you can dump things on, he's...he's a series of tubes!!" Getting this crazy man (3rd in line to the Presidency until the Dems won back control of Congress) out of our federal government, and heading home on his bridge to nowhere would be a huge win for Alaska, and a huge win for this country, because right now we're going nowhere.

--> Apparently, Obama's animated discussion with Lieberman in the Senate a few days ago was about Lieberman's recent character assaults and half-assed denials that Obama is a Muslim. Obama was disappointed in Lieberman, and told him that on January 20th, 2009, Lieberman will have to wear a Droopy mask and do a naked run around the capitol.

--> Were Obama (DON'T) to win (JINX) the election (IT) in November (!!!!!), his vacated Senate seat will have to be filled in a special election. Nancy Pelosi is already on the case, and has targetted Rep. Rahm Emanuel, who has spent the last few months hiding under a desk. Here at EDC, we believe that Emanuel would be a great Senator, especially since the desks are too small to hide under.
That being said, there's nowhere to hide in the Senate when Preston Brooks is on the loose!! Just think how civil Obama's conversation with Lieberman was. Back in the 1850s, Obama would have jumped him with a cane. Then again, in the 1850s Obama would have been the property of the guy with the cane. Think how far this nation has come. Then again, in the 1850s a man of McCain's age would be dead.

--> McCain is running webads of Obama and the Iranian President (I don't trust spellcheck for that one) side by side. You think the primary was bitter? You ain't seen nothing yet.

--> This just in: fist bumps aren't just for black people. Governor Mike Easley gets in on it with Obama. Which leads to our picture of the day:

Celebrating Victory in the 21st Century! When they achieve univeral healthcare, we'll see a high-five or even a chest bump.

Who Will Be Dick to McCain's Bush?

Of course, few vice-presidents have had the influence that Mr. Cheney has, but then again, few vice-presidents have been significantly more intelligent and strong-willed than their president.

John McCain has a ton of options to weigh in making this choice, and is carefully considering two competing political philosophies. On one hand is the Maverick, moderate image that has given him success in hypothetical matchups with Democrats, and overall popularity with independents and conservative Democrats. To reinforce this centrist position, McCain could choose another moderate and really compete for the middle of the spectrum (and especially Clinton supporters) with Obama. On the other hand is the Karl Rove strategy, which proved to be successful in two Bush campaigns: swing hard to the right. Be conservative, apologetically so, and guarantee that every last right-wing nutjob in the country shows up on November 4th and votes for you. With the base up in arms, you can simply show up more than your opponent, and win on the backs of hardcore right-wingers, instead of consensus.

On top of these two options, there is the age issue. With McCain being older than Coke in a can, the VP will quite importantly be "a heartbeat away" from the Oval Office. Thus, he needs to pick (1) a younger politician, someone who looks youthful and vigorous, like Obama, and not crotchety and aging, like McCain and (2) someone whose possibility of occuping the Presidency will not scare 50 million voters into voting for the other guy (see the second guy down the list).

At the same time, McCain is concerned that the base of his party (Bible-thumpers) doesn't trust him (although they have no reason not to). Plus, the Libertarian end of the party is up in arms, and being infected with RonPauxia, their candidate (Bob Barr) has a very real chance of sabotaging McCain unless he demonstrates his small government credentials.

So with all these political decisions swirling, does it matter at all if his choice is qualified? Remember, McCain has foreign policy covered, but is seen as weak on the economy and healthcare. Choosing a candidate with strong credentials in these areas would help exponentially. Here they are:

--> Former Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA): McCain's chief opponent in the primary, Romeny has been actively campaigning (behind the scenes) for this job. His economic experience (running the Winter Olympics) could benefit McCain's chances, but he has the same chance at turning Massachusetts blue as Obama has turning Idaho red. He could mollify the conservative base, and bulk up McCain, but doesn't really bring in any new supporters or states.

--> Governor Mike Huckabee (R-AR): No one would appease the Christian conservatives more. He's a very smart politician, and very popular in the south (would put it in the bag for the GOP). However, the possibility of someone this religious being separated from the American Presidency by John McCain's immune system is probably too terrifying for most Americans to imagine. Plus his joke at the NRA about Barack Obama being shot would probably be an awkward source of interest on the campaign trail. But this is where the list of former McCain opponents ends, and the list of scary potential begins.

--> Governor Robert Jindal (R-LA): At only 37 years old, Jindal is on a rapid rise to the top of his party the same way that Obama was four years ago. He's an eloquent politician, someone who expounds the true principles of the Republican Party in a way that makes people listen. Plus, he's one of the highest-ranking Indian-Americans in U.S. political history, and his place on the ticket would probably make some liberals and moderates take another look at the generally pasty GOP. He's a mainstream conservative that would reassure his party and reassure voters concerned about McCain's age. However, he's new to this game, and might be best served waiting a few years before making his grab at the big time.

--> Governor Charles Crist (R-FL): McCain owes this guy a big favor. His endorsement a week before the pivotal Florida primary could have very well delivered him that big, crucial win over Romney that sent McCain to the nomination. Besides loyalty, Crist has a few things going for him. He'd lock up Florida's 27 electoral votes for the Republicans, and allow McCain to focus his limited resources elsewhere (read: Ohio). Unfortunately, Crist would not reassure the conservative base of his party - he disagreed with federal intervention on Terry (and actually considered mobilizing the Florida National Guard to prevent federal troops from entering the hospital - talk about states' rights). And he's a bachelor without children - not exactly the poster boy for family values.

--> Governor Tim Pawlenty (R-MN): Another young, intelligent, rising star of the Republican Party, this guy would get a hero's welcome as the VP-nominee at the GOP Convention in Minnesota this fall. His youth would reassure voters, his blue-collar attitude would appeal to undecideds, and his time for the spotlight may have finally come. However, he's been a relatively divisive figure in Minnesota politics, and as another strong conservative, he may not bring the independents into McCain's camp that he needs to.

--> Senator Joe Lieberman (I-CT): This would be a dumb choice for McCain. Democrats would make the Bush-Cheney comparison (with the VP as the real puppetmaster pulling the strings), and although this assertion would be false, we could cite the video of Lieberman whispering the correct answer on Sunnis and Shi'ites in McCain's ear as evidence. He also wouldn't win Connecticut (in a rematch of 2006, Lamont would beat Lieberman today). Also, he'd completely alienate any Democratic allies he might still have, and he disagrees with McCain on everything except foreign policy, so I have no idea why he'd join him. However, he's clearly in his camp, so you never know.

Other News of the Day: Not much. Hillary gave a terrific speech last night, and I'm looking forward to her vigorous work on the campaign trail this fall. The party is falling into line behind our nominee, realizing that the possibility of President McCain is too scary to ignore.

Also, let me know if you're reading this thing. Let your voices be heard, and tell me what features you like, don't like, would like to see added/more of.

Addendum (Dear Hillary Supporters in Denial)

Update (Post-Suspension Speech):  I realize that my tensions, and the tensions of many Democrats have been very high since this primary began.  Supporters of both these candidates believed very deeply in them, and desperately wanted them to succeed.  And while I am disappointed with the blind defiance some of Senator Clinton's supporters have shown over the last few days, I am deeply inspired by her speech today.  I urge all of you to read her parting (maybe) words, and her call for us to keep moving forward as a party, and as a nation.  Our nation is better for her strong candidacy, and hopefully Senator Obama will be a stronger candidate because of her challenge and (now) her endorsement and support.  This speech is the speech she should have been giving all campaign, and if she had, she probably would have had my support.  This was a cry for a better America - a feeling of sorrow over the way the last 40 years have gone (besides her husband's successful 8 years), but more importantly HOPE for the future, and an undying belief that we can CHANGE America for the better.  These are not buzzwords, they are ideals that we must strive for, now more desperately than ever.  There is so much work to be done in this country, and we need figures like Clinton and Obama, who not only understand that there is hard work ahead, but that in order to achieve our lofty (and necessary goals), we must have a President and a candidate that can INSPIRE our citizens to work with him/her.  Senator Clinton is a great public servant, and although the campaign she ran was often bitter and divisive, her ideals are anything but.  I strongly hope that Obama chooses her as his running mate, both to unite the party and to strengthen our White House in 2009.  The following entry was an attack on fringe Clinton-supporters, not the candidate herself.  

There will be a larger, main post later in the day, but I wanted to get this off my chest. This post is directed towards anyone in my readership who supported Senator Clinton in the Democratic Primary:

I hope you are not as crazy as the cast of Cuckoo's Nest that has taken up virtual residence at the Facebook group, "Hillary Supporters in Recovery." Please check out the discussion boards and the wall postings for reference. Now I have no problem with supporters being disappointed that their candidate lost. I know a lot of people believed that Hillary Clinton was a honest, caring politician who was going to save the Democratic Party, and that's fine. But planning to punish the DNC for its "sexism" and "stupidity" by voting for McCain???? I can't actually believe my eyes (if I were to hear this out loud, my head would explode).

First of all, there's always a bunch of losing candidates - that's the definition of a primary, where only one person gets chosen. This attitude seems to suggest that the nomination was rightfully Clinton's, when in fact that sort of arrogance is exactly why so many Democrats rejected her campaign.

Secondly, if you're going to aggressively continue to support your candidate, and oppose the Democratic nominee, even after she has dropped out and endorsed Obama, at least do so with factual accuracy. Some of the claims on this website are astoundingly misinformed. Just in case any of you were harboring the same reservations, I'm going to address them now.

--> First of all, there's the blind, direction-less anger. I've seen these supporters attack "misogynists" like Chris Matthews, the entire media, Obama himself, and Michelle Obama (??). There's one poster who was enraged by the media's claim that Clinton stole coverage from Obama on the day that should have been all about him. IT SHOULD HAVE BEEN ABOUT HIM - SHE WAS THE LOSER, SPEAKING TO A CROWD IN A ROOM WITHOUT CELL SERVICE OR INTERNET, WHO HAD NO IDEA SHE HAD ALREADY LOST! HE WAS THE FIRST AFRICAN-AMERICAN PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE IN HISTORY!!

--> Then there's the few people who assert that, despite being very liberal themselves, they are disappointed that the Democratic Party continues to nominate liberals (who share their values), who they see as unelectable. Thus, they plan to punish the Democrats, and teach them a lesson by voting against the guy who best reflects their values. Brilliant.

--> Then there's the people who keep asserting that the DNC overthrew the will of the people by adhering to stupid delegate-counting methods. Firstly, the superdelegates are a reasonable part of the process, and even if they weren't, Obama won more normal delegates anyway. Secondly, Obama won more votes. Thirdly, Obama won more states. Fourthly, Hillary spent months ADVOCATING for superdelegates to decide this race, and then once they turned against her, she flip-flopped (of course something she never did at all this campaign) and decided that superdelegates didn't matter any more.

--> But now it gets good. Now we get to the people who think Hillary should run as an Independent. Besides being political suicide, this is stupid for a large reason: she couldn't win. One poster asserts that she could probably win NY, CA, MA, NJ, FL, PA, and WV - 172 electoral votes. I laugh, truly I do. She would win 0 states, and all she would do would get McCain elected.

--> And then there's the people who think the race isn't over yet. A few posters asserted that Hillary is "only suspending her campaign," not "ending" it, so she can still keep fighting at the convention. All I can do is shake my head in disgust, because you people don't know anything. "Suspending" one's campaign merely means that you've ended the race, but you can still keep raising money to pay off your (in Hillary's case: massive) debt.

--> Then there's the people who argue that Obama supporters insisted on unfairly punishing Florida and Michigan. You morons! Florida and Michigan broke the DNC rules by organizing their primaries before February 5th. "But," you cry, "Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and North Carolina were allowed to go earlier!" "Oh ho," I reply, "Those are the states that are assigned to go first, because we need small states to start the primary contest, otherwise only rich candidates would be able to compete in the nominating process. Also, if we didn't limit the number of early states, then next time around, the primary process would be insane." So Michigan decided to go earlier anyway, knowing full well that the Dems would have to punish them (just as the Republicans did). Florida we should blame a little less, because it was a Republican-controlled state government that passed the law to move up the date. But Democratic leaders didn't even put up a fight, and rules are rules. Obama's camp, at the Rules & Bylaws Committee meeting, even did its best to seek the least harsh punishment possible for these states by only stripping them of half their delegates.

--> The bottom line is that every Hillary supporter whose views I've read on the internet appears to be largely misinformed, and incredibly bitter. They have all lined up and devoted themselves to a person, instead of the ideals she stands for. Even Senator Clinton knows that the best thing she, and all her supporters, can do right now is to line up behind the Democratic nominee (whom she agrees with almost entirely), and do everything they can to ensure that John McCain isn't given four years to advance George Bush's failed policies.

--> Oh yeah, and that is a real danger - despite the huge gains we're going to make in Congress this year, we won't even come close to veto-proof majorities.

By all means, Hillary supporters, convince me you're not all this way, because you're going to end up electing a candidate that stands for everything Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama oppose.

Real entry to come later.

People Not Named Hillary! 151 Days to Go!

So with our analysis of Hillary yesterday, we've jumped right into the Veepstakes phenomenon that's sweeping the nation, and inspired electoral-vote.com to copy me, running their own article on the Pros and Cons of Hillary's VP possibilities the day after I did (I'm on to you, VoteMaster).

Today we move on to the rest of the Democratic field for running mate. Some interesting choices, if you ask me.

--> Senator Jim Webb (D-VA): For my money, the best pick for Obama for a number of reasons. His resume is impeccable, and designed especially for the purpose of wooing moderates and Republicans: former Republican, Secretary of the Navy under Reagan, 2 years in the Senate, tons of foreign policy experience, and a Hollywood screenwriter (it's true, check imdb if you don't believe me). He also probably locks up Virginia for the Dems, which is a huge boost to Obama's candidacy. However, he is known as something of a loose cannon. Most importantly, he remained neutral in the primary race, so he could be tolerable to Hillary and her supporters: Hillary-O-Meter - 7, measuring scores of how Hillary would appreciate this choice ranging from 1 (Rick Lazio) to 10 (Hillary Clinton).

--> Governor Bill Richardson (D-NM): His resume is superb: Ambassador to the UN, Secretary of Energy, Congressman, and governor (a Hispanic one, at that). He'd put most of the south-west in play just with his presence on the ticket. He also has a fantastic I'm-Oliver-Platt look going for him now with that crazy, evil-Spock beard. The problem is, Clinton's camp has called him Judas on several occasions due to his surprise endorsement of Obama, which I suppose implies that Hillary is our Messiah, but that's besides the point. Hillary-O-Meter - 2. Also, how diversity-happy do we want to be?

--> Former Senator John Edwards (D-NC): Today, Edwards announced that he was not interested in the job...is this a pro or a con? He should run on a pro-haircut platform.

--> General Wesley Clark: Former Supreme Commander of NATO? Oh yes, I'd love to see that debate on foreign policy credentials. He's not a great campaigner, but he was a solid Hillary backer, which could make him another unity pick. Hillary-O-Meter: 8

--> Governor Ted Strickland (D-OH): His presence on the ticket could certainly help swing the mother of all swing states a little bit bluer. He's very blue collar, and he's a strong Hillary backer - Hillary-O-Meter: 8. The problem is that he adds no foreign policy experience to a ticket that could really use some, and most of his own people don't want him to run.

--> Governor Katherine Sebelius (D-KS): Could two native Kansans on the ticket actually turn the state blue? The short answer is no. The long answer is NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO. However, Sebelius is very popular in the Midwest, and is a rising star in the party. Many people also think that she could help bring in the white women who will feel scorned now that their savior has been vanquished. In my estimation, however, Hillary backers will feel really really pissed off if a woman not named Hill-dawg is on the ballot - Hillary-O-Meter: 3

--> Governor Janet Napolitano (D-AZ): Much of this answer will be the same as the above. She can't turn Arizona blue. She's popular in the Southwest, and is a rising star. She'll help with white women (AKA Hillary wanna-bes). But she could also piss them off - Hillary-O-Meter: 3

--> Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY): Just wanted to point out that she and Obama met secretly, without press or campaign staff, in Senator Feinstein's living room last night. Apparently, the VP slot was not mentioned, but they laughed a lot and seemed very friendly, and agreed upon certain terms for discussing her support. Also, this is the last time I get to mention her before she drops out, so I'd like to take this opportunity to thank her for the hard-fought, honorable campaign she's run.
P.S. Your level of pandering sickens me, you are completely self-obsessed (and if you don't believe me, just read any of her recent speeches and count the number of times she says "I", then compare it to the number of times in Obama's speeches that he says "we" or "you"), and I will fight my heart out to see that you are not the nominee in four years, were a new nominee to be necessary.

P.P.S. Any chance that this mooning gnome represents what President McCain will look like in three years when, while at a foreign summit, he forgets where he is and decides this is a good time to drop his pants?

Other news today:
--> Obama considers public financing, with certain conditions that the RNC must fulfill first.
--> Most Democrats, according to a new poll, want a unity ticket with Obama and Hill-dawg.
--> The latest product of the Republican attack machine? McCain compares Obama to William Jennings Bryan. Now that's a fantastic historical throwback. I especially liked the part in Obama's speech the other night when he threw his arms into the air and cried, "You will not crucify this nation on a cross of partisan politics!!!" Also the part where Bryan lost three times. That's relevant. Totally.

Hillary on the Ticket? Loyal Soldier or Scorned Woman? 152 Days to Go!

So the buzz right now, as the news media loses its favorite never-ending news story/soap opera, is the possibility of Hillary Clinton being chosen/pushing herself as Barack Obama's running mate. Assuming Barack Obama doesn't concede, as the ever-insane Hillaryis44 continues to demand, he has a tough choice ahead of him. In the coming days, I'll be going through a series of possible running mates that Obama could choose. Today, we start with the big one: Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Pros:

--> She has a lot going for her, most importantly her 18 million votes. Roughly half the Democratic Party wanted her to be their nominee this year, and in order for Obama to win, he needs most of his own party in line behind him. Choosing Hillary could placate the die-hards, and demonstrate to the undecideds that his talk about "unifying" and "healing wounds" isn't just talk, but a real plan to govern. What better way to show this than by choosing his biggest rival (thus far)? And is there any way McCain could win with the entire weight of the Democratic Party unified behind their nominee?

--> She's an incredibly savvy politician, with an enormous fundraising aparatus (which, combined with Obama's, would absolutely bury McCain), and knowledge of the political game.

--> She appeals to the very white, working-class voters, white women, and older Americans that Obama has had so much trouble courting (and will be courted heavily by McCain).

--> She has, in fact, done very well in the key swing states. Polls show her presence on the ticket bumping Obama from a 3% loss to a 7% win in Michigan. She could also boost him in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Missouri, and could put Florida and Arkansas back on the table.

--> Keeping her out of the Senate, where she'd be sure to push her own agenda heavily (perhaps over even Obama's) might be a strategic ploy to enforce his own policy.

--> Bill Clinton.

Cons:

--> She is one of the most polarizing figures in America. 40% of the country refuses to vote for her, and that could very well hurt Obama if some of those voters decide that even having her in the VP slot is too much. Plus, Obama is selling himself as a post-partisan figure, which is something Hillary is simply not.

--> Although her 18 million supporters is a powerful bargaining chip, it is unseemly to "bargain" with the presidential nominee, just as (former) Hillary supporter Governor Rendell of PA remarked yesterday.

--> The worst thing a VP candidate can do is overshadow the top dog, but that's exactly what Hillary Clinton could do. She's a political sensation, and would draw a ton of attention away from Barack, as she did with her incredibly petty, self-centered speech on Tuesday night.

--> Does Obama need her? When push comes to shove, Democrats will go to the polls in November choosing between a continuation of Bush's policies, or a true-blooded liberal. Many experts believe that the party will unite regardless of whether Hillary is on the ticket (assuming she still goes out there and campaigns hard for him anyway - which she will to have any chance at the nomination in 4 years).

--> Would rejecting her demonstrate that Obama is tough? After she ungraciously refused to concede, Obama needs to not be seen as caving. Rather than being a doormat, he might want to be viewed as the Commander-in-Chief and show her the door.

--> While the prospect of her Senate agenda muddying Obama's legislative plans is unnerving, the notion of her and Bill running around the White House is downright terrifying.

--> After all the tough shots she's taken at Obama (and admittedly she had every right to do so, and in some ways may have made him stronger for November), could she legitimately run alongside him, and essentially say, "Oops, I was wrong" about everything she had attacked him for during the primaries?
--> Bill Clinton.

There's a lot to consider in this choice, but Clinton is expected to receive a lot of thought by the Obama camp. Even if he doesn't pick her, there are many ways for Obama to entice Clinton and her supporters. He could offer to make her Secretary of Health and Human services, allowing her to take full reign of the healthcare crisis she cares so deeply about. If she's not the running mate, she could certainly have considerable say in who the VP is; for example, instead of taking the incredibly qualified but Clinton-bashing Governor Richardson, Obama might have to take a staunch Hillary supporter like Governor Strickland of OH or Evan Bayh of IN. The best suggestion I've heard so far is to offer her the next open Supreme Court spot. I love this idea, because the idea of Hillary (a brilliant, passionate, eloquent defender of liberalism) on the bench, matching up with Scalia and Thomas is almost too good to be true. It also gets her out of the political arena, which tends to bring out the worst in her. The only flaw here is that Obama would have to publicly announce this offer to satisfy her supporters, meaning he'd have to run for President with an added target for Republicans to fire at (and nothing brings out the attack dogs like a judicial nominee).

Of course, there's a chance that she just doesn't want the job, and that Obama could offer it to her, and she will graciously decline, then work her heart out for him anyway. Sounds good to me.

Tomorrow: A look at some of the other main contenders for the Veepstakes - a former Republican, a current Republican, women not named Hillary, a few governors, a few Senators, and a Supreme Commander of NATO or two.

Saturday: A look at McCain's VP-selection process. Sneak peak: It's not all old, white men (although most of them are).

Picture of the Day: (courtesy of the Times)

The Obama watching Hillary's "I will be making no decisions" speech. This just makes me love Michelle Obama even more.

Key news of the day:

--> Hillary to drop out Saturday. Tea and crumpets will be served.

--> Obama up 48% to 42% over McCain, according to CBS News

--> Obama has a short, secret conversation with Joe Lieberman (TRAITOR!!!) on the floor of the Senate, apparently trying to convince him of something.

The Campaign Begins! 153 Days to Go!

So it's Obama's first day as the nominee...how's he doing so far? I'm sure it's only a matter of time before the Democratic campaign goes off the tracks, but right now it's not so bad. He spent the day back at the Senate, greeting Clinton supporters and trying to mend fences (shaking hands with Schumer, kissing Feinstein) and talking privately with Lieberman (who, in case you haven't noticed, is angling to be McCain's running mate). Meanwhile, superdelegates are starting to line up behind the nominee - Pelosi declared that "we have a nominee" and the race finally appears over.

So how is this election looking right now? Well, there's 50 states (and the capital) to examine, but thanks to our hilariously undemocratic Electoral College system, only about 15 of them matter. A quick rundown follows:
Safe Obama: California, Illinois, New York, New Jersey, Vermont, Maine, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Delaware, Maryland, DC
Safe McCain: Idaho, Utah, Arizona, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, Wyoming, Montana, North Dakota, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama, West Virginia

At this point, we start with a base of Obama - 161, McCain - 88. Now, let's look at the others:
Washington (11 EV) - Most likely a solid Democratic state
Oregon (7 EV) - Ditto to Washington, although McCain's maverick image could play well there.
Nevada (5 EV) - favors McCain slightly, but the whole region has been trending bluer lately, and Obama could certainly compete here
Colorado (9 EV) - Bush narrowly won here in 04, and since then they've elected a Democratic governor, a Democratic senator, and are expected to add another Democrat to the Senate this year. A state that's trending extremely blue, this could be a major Obama pickup this year.
New Mexico (5 EV) - Also trending blue, may be the biggest battle ground of 2008. With Richardson a popular governor to promote Democratic interests, the Dems should feel very confident about their chances in the Senate race, the three open House seats, and the presidential election.
Minnesota (10 EV) - Site of the GOP Convention, and an endangered Republican Senator facing a challenge by a Jewish, liberal New Yorker, Minnesota should see a lot of attention from both parties this year. However, when push comes to shove, it should stay in the Democratic column.
Wisconsin (10 EV) - Apply everything said about Minnesota, minus the convention, the senator, and the Jew.
Iowa (7 EV) - Another state that seems to favor an Obama pickup; there's a lot of good will here since his magical caucus win that drove him to the nomination, and activists here will work their asses off to get him those 7 votes.
Missouri (11 EV) - A state expected to be closer in 2004, Bush ended up with a comfortable 7% advantage. Its urban areas will benefit Obama, who is expected to generate unprecedented African-American turnout, but its industrial character may exascerbate the weaknesses displayed by his matchup with Hillary. I'd say it leans towards McCain, but this will be one to keep our eyes on, as Senator McCaskill was a major Obama supporter.
Texas (34 EV) - a state most people assume to be a shoe-in for the GOP, polls have shown Obama within 10% of McCain. There's been a massive voter drive across the country for the Democrats this year, and even the possibility of competing in Texas is enough to make our mouths water. Even without winning Texas (which is unlikely), it'd be great to at least make McCain spend money in the state, considering how cash-strapped he'll be already. Still, a probable McCain pickup.
Louisiana (9 EV) - probably a McCain state, with a popular, newly-elected Republican governor, but strong black turnout in the New Orleans area could give Obama a boost.
Mississippi (6 EV) - a probable McCain win, but you never know (see above).
Georgia (15 EV) - a state that should favor the GOP, but with Barr running on the Libertarian ticket (in his home state), McCain could lose a fair amount of support, and this spoiler effect could grant Obama a huge win down south.
South Carolina (8 EV) and North Carolina (15 EV) - both favor McCain, but Obama could make a play for both.
Virginia (13 EV) - A state the Democrats haven't carried since 1964, but growth of the northern, liberal suburbs have made this state ripe for the taking. Add in a popular Democratic governor, a high-profile Senate race likely to favor the Democrats, and the possibility of Senator Jim Webb as Obama's running mate, and you've got a major battleground this fall.
Indiana (11 EV) - bordering Illinois, this could be another surprise swing state. However, don't count on it. This should still be McCain country.
Michigan (17 EV) - a huge battleground this year, as early polls suggest McCain slightly edging Obama. In a year in which the economy is on everyone's minds (as it always is in Michigan, anyway), this shouldn't look too promising for McCain in the long run, as he, by his own admission, "doesn't know much about the economy." But mark this up as a swing state early on.
Ohio (20 EV) - The grand prize. The one that decided 2004, and may very well decide this year. We know that Obama didn't fair well here during the primary, but the general election is a whole different beast. This is anyone's fight, and I'm sure both candidates will get to know the people of Ohio quite well over the next 5 months.
Pennsylvania (21 EV) - A tough swing state that Obama struggled in, but with the state trending bluer every year, he should be able to hold on.
Connecticut (7 EV) - With Lieberman undermining his Democratic support, Obama might lose this state to McCain if he's not careful.
New Hampshire (4 EV) - McCain's maverick image has always played very well here, and this is one state in New England that hasn't been overrun by liberals (yet). If McCain has the money to pick a fight in the Northeast, look for him to target these two.
Florida (27 EV) - With a popular, Republican governor (who may be McCain's running mate), and a state that's been getting redder each year, Florida may be a McCain favorite again this year, after it helped shoot him to the nomination just 4 months ago. This is one swing state the Dems might not have a shot at this year.

Overall, though, it'll be a good fight. Democrats should feel very confident this year, as Kerry's results seem like a reasonable starting point. If Obama is able to hold all Kerry's victories, he'd only need a small combination of the above-mentioned states. For example, netting Iowa and Virginia and New Mexico would put him over the threshhold, as would getting Ohio, as would getting Colorado and a combination of two of the former.

We'll see more in-depth looks at each state as this process goes along, but for now this should stand as a decent overview. Just remember that adding Hillary as the VP could change the entire equation - Arkansas and West Virginia would be back on the table, and maybe a few other states as well.

Other main news of the day:
--> Obama and McCain campaigns discuss possible series of town hall-style debates (either Kennedy-Goldwater or Lincoln-Douglas style) to be held together across the country over the next few months. They may even ride in the same plane together! The best part of this story (besides the seemingly ridiculous chance that we might have a presidential election featuring substantial debate of the issues)? McCain's campaign delivered the invitation to the debates in person, rather than e-mailing them. It seems our favorite 72 year-old Senator hasn't quite figured out that series of tubes yet.

--> Obama forms his VP search committee headed by Caroline Kennedy. Should be a blast. More on this hunt later.

--> Jimmy Carter urges Obama not to pick Hillary as his running mate.

--> Hillary Clinton, speaking at the American Israel Political Action Committee, declares, "I know that Senator Obama will be a good friend to Israel."