So today, with most of the basic introduction (finally) out of the way, EDC breaks out its wide-angle lens for a look at the overall look of the race so far - impressions, predictions, and complaints. With 5 months still to go, anything can happen; in politics, a week is a long time, and there's many weeks still to be fought for Obama and McCain. At this time in 2004, most people had never heard of the Swift Boat Veterans. There's always the possibility of an October Surprise that changes everything. World events are beyond the control of presidential candidates (and often presidents themselves), and so the context of this debate can change with one moment in international intrigue.
Still, the Democrats have many reasons to be optimistic this year, mostly because Americans are anything but. The economy continues to be the top concern of many Americans, and it's only going to get worse. Now, 86% of Americans believe we'll top $5 per gallon for gas by the end of the year. Traditionally, elections where economics are the concern favor the Democrats - they are the party of bread-and-butter domestic issues. That's why McCain has been doing everything in his power to keep the debate about diplomacy, Iran, and Iraq. B
ut McCain has a significant disadvantage on economic issues to begin with, because he doesn't know anything about them. This is the guy who said (while running for President), "I don't know much about the economy." That's ridiculous. How does someone try to run this country without understanding economics? More important than McCain's lack of expertise, he's going to have to run while defending the Bush economic record. Tax cuts for the wealthy (which he flip-flopped on), less spending, and the inherently conservative approach of letting the market fix itself just don't sound appealing to most Americans who are "having moderate to heavy financial difficulties."
ut McCain has a significant disadvantage on economic issues to begin with, because he doesn't know anything about them. This is the guy who said (while running for President), "I don't know much about the economy." That's ridiculous. How does someone try to run this country without understanding economics? More important than McCain's lack of expertise, he's going to have to run while defending the Bush economic record. Tax cuts for the wealthy (which he flip-flopped on), less spending, and the inherently conservative approach of letting the market fix itself just don't sound appealing to most Americans who are "having moderate to heavy financial difficulties."If the economy continues to be the focus of this election, John McCain will lose. As it is, he's going to have a tough time convincing industrial/agricultural workers in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan that he's the right man to right the ship. That's why he'll spend all his energy calling attention to Obama's plan to give Iran the Sudatenland. The typical Republican strategy is to make the election about fear: fear of foreign enemies, fear of nuclear war, fear of weak leadership. This year that strategy is more important than ever. If Americans are afraid about our security and our future, they will turn to a seasoned, steady hand (72 year-old McCain) because they don't trust the whippersnapper. If Americans are hopeful, and ready to believe in a brighter tom
orrow, then Obama's message of hope and change is going to go over really well. This is where the uncontrollable world comes in. A terrorist attack against Americans or American allies would change the whole game. It could very well make Americans scared, and run to the strong embrace of John McCain. However, it could possibly illustrate that 8 years of the Bush Doctrine (see left picture) have failed to make us safer, that it is time for a new, diplomatic approach. That might be giving the American people too much credit, though.
orrow, then Obama's message of hope and change is going to go over really well. This is where the uncontrollable world comes in. A terrorist attack against Americans or American allies would change the whole game. It could very well make Americans scared, and run to the strong embrace of John McCain. However, it could possibly illustrate that 8 years of the Bush Doctrine (see left picture) have failed to make us safer, that it is time for a new, diplomatic approach. That might be giving the American people too much credit, though.This diplomacy versus appeasement issue will be a major one this whole way. With McCain trying to keep the focus on foreign policy, Obama's pledge to meet with hostile foreign leaders is the perfect opportunity to paint him as weak and naive. I think I missed the newspaper the day that "diplomacy" was officially changed to "cowardice," but I digress. Both these guys are gonna trot out the big military minds on each side in order to bolster their case that the other guy is stupid. Expect to see a lot of Joe Biden as Obama's attack dog on foreign policy(and probable Secretary of State) and General Clark as well (Secretary of Defense?). On the Republican side, we'll see Patreus again, maybe Powell as well (although he apparently is mulling an Obama endorsement). Somehow I doubt that our Commander-in-Chief or Rumsfeld will be anywhere near McCain any time soon.
The "Daddy Issue" is often decisive in presidential races. The GOP is always seen as stronger, and more decisive (i.e. better for military matters). This often helps them with the core undecided voters, namely Security Moms. With so many white women professing their undying love to Hillary Clinton, they're going to be a much sought-after group by both candidates.
In terms of ele
ctoral math, the race again looks promising for Obama. With his enormous fundraising advantage, and with help from DNC Chair Howard Dean's 50 State Strategy, Obama announced today his plans to run some sort of operation in every single state. Of course, it'll be scaled (the Ohio and Idaho offices will be different sizes), but the fact is that this will not only help bump up his popular vote numbers, but also help Democrats all over the ticket (from local to state to congressional races).
ctoral math, the race again looks promising for Obama. With his enormous fundraising advantage, and with help from DNC Chair Howard Dean's 50 State Strategy, Obama announced today his plans to run some sort of operation in every single state. Of course, it'll be scaled (the Ohio and Idaho offices will be different sizes), but the fact is that this will not only help bump up his popular vote numbers, but also help Democrats all over the ticket (from local to state to congressional races). More specifically, the math favors him because of the few key swing states he seems to have an advantage in. If you believe current polling (which again is subject to ENORMOUS CHANGE), Obama has a very real shot to win Colorado (trending blue), New Mexico (Bill Richardson has an evil-Spock beard), Virginia (Jim Webb, Mark Warner are both rising stars who will help round up support), Pennsylvania (should stay blue), Missouri (more on why we should win there later), Iowa (they love him there), and Wisconsin (...cheese?). If his leads hold in these states, Obama could win the White House without winning Florida, Ohio, Indiana (which is roughly tied now), or Michigan, all of which he has decent chances at capturing. A Democrat winning the White House without Florida, Ohio, OR Michigan??? Am I dreaming? All those states should be the swing states that decide this race, but instead Obama gets to extend McCain to his breaking point, and try to beat him elsewhere, while simultaneously forcing him to work his heart out to win those states. He could even make him spend money in Texas.
The dynamics of the race could always change, but right now I'm feeling good. I urge my readers, if you go to college in ANY of the states I just mentioned, register to vote THERE, and cast your presidential vote THERE in November - it will count much more.
--> Missouri, why does it matter? Besides being the absolute center of America, it has voted for the winner of every presidential election since the beginning of the century ex
cept 1956 (what was wrong with Eisenhower?). Thus, it's a good windfall for any candidate. The Democrats have a good shot here, especially since a harsher voter registration law failed to get out of the state legislature as its session ended. This law would have toughened restrictions, and made it harder for the lower class voters, African-American voters, college students, and seniors to get their vote counted. With these groups free(r) to cast their ballots now, the Dems are in pretty good shape. Expect Obama to spend a lot of time in Missouri (and all along the Mississippi, from Missouri to Iowa to Wisconsin to Ohio, and yes I
cept 1956 (what was wrong with Eisenhower?). Thus, it's a good windfall for any candidate. The Democrats have a good shot here, especially since a harsher voter registration law failed to get out of the state legislature as its session ended. This law would have toughened restrictions, and made it harder for the lower class voters, African-American voters, college students, and seniors to get their vote counted. With these groups free(r) to cast their ballots now, the Dems are in pretty good shape. Expect Obama to spend a lot of time in Missouri (and all along the Mississippi, from Missouri to Iowa to Wisconsin to Ohio, and yes I know that it's incorrect geography, but geography and politics are two very different things).
Bottom Line: Right now, this election is all about Barack Obama. Many Americans are going to show up at the polls, and decide if they trust him to be our President. If they do, they vote for him. If they're nervous, they vote for McCain. The GOP will do everything it can to keep the dynamic this way, because if this contest becomes a referendum on John McCain, his age, his policies, or his party, Obama will be headed for a major landslide.
Picture of the Day:
The headline reads "Uncle Barack's Cabin." Oh, the Germans...
Quote of the Day: "Senator Obama says that I'm running for a Bush's third term. It seems to me he's running for Jimmy Carter's second." - John McCain. Of course, this statement means absolutely nothing to the younger voters that are already largely in Obama's camp, and Jimmy Carter references certainly won't sway college students very much.
So in conclusion, look forward to voting in November for either Jimmy Carter or George W. Bush.
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