The Campaign Begins! 153 Days to Go!

So it's Obama's first day as the nominee...how's he doing so far? I'm sure it's only a matter of time before the Democratic campaign goes off the tracks, but right now it's not so bad. He spent the day back at the Senate, greeting Clinton supporters and trying to mend fences (shaking hands with Schumer, kissing Feinstein) and talking privately with Lieberman (who, in case you haven't noticed, is angling to be McCain's running mate). Meanwhile, superdelegates are starting to line up behind the nominee - Pelosi declared that "we have a nominee" and the race finally appears over.

So how is this election looking right now? Well, there's 50 states (and the capital) to examine, but thanks to our hilariously undemocratic Electoral College system, only about 15 of them matter. A quick rundown follows:
Safe Obama: California, Illinois, New York, New Jersey, Vermont, Maine, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Delaware, Maryland, DC
Safe McCain: Idaho, Utah, Arizona, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, Wyoming, Montana, North Dakota, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama, West Virginia

At this point, we start with a base of Obama - 161, McCain - 88. Now, let's look at the others:
Washington (11 EV) - Most likely a solid Democratic state
Oregon (7 EV) - Ditto to Washington, although McCain's maverick image could play well there.
Nevada (5 EV) - favors McCain slightly, but the whole region has been trending bluer lately, and Obama could certainly compete here
Colorado (9 EV) - Bush narrowly won here in 04, and since then they've elected a Democratic governor, a Democratic senator, and are expected to add another Democrat to the Senate this year. A state that's trending extremely blue, this could be a major Obama pickup this year.
New Mexico (5 EV) - Also trending blue, may be the biggest battle ground of 2008. With Richardson a popular governor to promote Democratic interests, the Dems should feel very confident about their chances in the Senate race, the three open House seats, and the presidential election.
Minnesota (10 EV) - Site of the GOP Convention, and an endangered Republican Senator facing a challenge by a Jewish, liberal New Yorker, Minnesota should see a lot of attention from both parties this year. However, when push comes to shove, it should stay in the Democratic column.
Wisconsin (10 EV) - Apply everything said about Minnesota, minus the convention, the senator, and the Jew.
Iowa (7 EV) - Another state that seems to favor an Obama pickup; there's a lot of good will here since his magical caucus win that drove him to the nomination, and activists here will work their asses off to get him those 7 votes.
Missouri (11 EV) - A state expected to be closer in 2004, Bush ended up with a comfortable 7% advantage. Its urban areas will benefit Obama, who is expected to generate unprecedented African-American turnout, but its industrial character may exascerbate the weaknesses displayed by his matchup with Hillary. I'd say it leans towards McCain, but this will be one to keep our eyes on, as Senator McCaskill was a major Obama supporter.
Texas (34 EV) - a state most people assume to be a shoe-in for the GOP, polls have shown Obama within 10% of McCain. There's been a massive voter drive across the country for the Democrats this year, and even the possibility of competing in Texas is enough to make our mouths water. Even without winning Texas (which is unlikely), it'd be great to at least make McCain spend money in the state, considering how cash-strapped he'll be already. Still, a probable McCain pickup.
Louisiana (9 EV) - probably a McCain state, with a popular, newly-elected Republican governor, but strong black turnout in the New Orleans area could give Obama a boost.
Mississippi (6 EV) - a probable McCain win, but you never know (see above).
Georgia (15 EV) - a state that should favor the GOP, but with Barr running on the Libertarian ticket (in his home state), McCain could lose a fair amount of support, and this spoiler effect could grant Obama a huge win down south.
South Carolina (8 EV) and North Carolina (15 EV) - both favor McCain, but Obama could make a play for both.
Virginia (13 EV) - A state the Democrats haven't carried since 1964, but growth of the northern, liberal suburbs have made this state ripe for the taking. Add in a popular Democratic governor, a high-profile Senate race likely to favor the Democrats, and the possibility of Senator Jim Webb as Obama's running mate, and you've got a major battleground this fall.
Indiana (11 EV) - bordering Illinois, this could be another surprise swing state. However, don't count on it. This should still be McCain country.
Michigan (17 EV) - a huge battleground this year, as early polls suggest McCain slightly edging Obama. In a year in which the economy is on everyone's minds (as it always is in Michigan, anyway), this shouldn't look too promising for McCain in the long run, as he, by his own admission, "doesn't know much about the economy." But mark this up as a swing state early on.
Ohio (20 EV) - The grand prize. The one that decided 2004, and may very well decide this year. We know that Obama didn't fair well here during the primary, but the general election is a whole different beast. This is anyone's fight, and I'm sure both candidates will get to know the people of Ohio quite well over the next 5 months.
Pennsylvania (21 EV) - A tough swing state that Obama struggled in, but with the state trending bluer every year, he should be able to hold on.
Connecticut (7 EV) - With Lieberman undermining his Democratic support, Obama might lose this state to McCain if he's not careful.
New Hampshire (4 EV) - McCain's maverick image has always played very well here, and this is one state in New England that hasn't been overrun by liberals (yet). If McCain has the money to pick a fight in the Northeast, look for him to target these two.
Florida (27 EV) - With a popular, Republican governor (who may be McCain's running mate), and a state that's been getting redder each year, Florida may be a McCain favorite again this year, after it helped shoot him to the nomination just 4 months ago. This is one swing state the Dems might not have a shot at this year.

Overall, though, it'll be a good fight. Democrats should feel very confident this year, as Kerry's results seem like a reasonable starting point. If Obama is able to hold all Kerry's victories, he'd only need a small combination of the above-mentioned states. For example, netting Iowa and Virginia and New Mexico would put him over the threshhold, as would getting Ohio, as would getting Colorado and a combination of two of the former.

We'll see more in-depth looks at each state as this process goes along, but for now this should stand as a decent overview. Just remember that adding Hillary as the VP could change the entire equation - Arkansas and West Virginia would be back on the table, and maybe a few other states as well.

Other main news of the day:
--> Obama and McCain campaigns discuss possible series of town hall-style debates (either Kennedy-Goldwater or Lincoln-Douglas style) to be held together across the country over the next few months. They may even ride in the same plane together! The best part of this story (besides the seemingly ridiculous chance that we might have a presidential election featuring substantial debate of the issues)? McCain's campaign delivered the invitation to the debates in person, rather than e-mailing them. It seems our favorite 72 year-old Senator hasn't quite figured out that series of tubes yet.

--> Obama forms his VP search committee headed by Caroline Kennedy. Should be a blast. More on this hunt later.

--> Jimmy Carter urges Obama not to pick Hillary as his running mate.

--> Hillary Clinton, speaking at the American Israel Political Action Committee, declares, "I know that Senator Obama will be a good friend to Israel."