GOP Senators Added to List of Endangered Species! 142 Days to Go!

As promised, today EDC brings you our outlook on the key Senate races this year. Traditionally, the power of the incumbency is key to keeping Congressmen in office; in normal years, incumbents get reelected 90% of the time. However, with such an anti-GOP climate across the country, the time is ripe for the Democrats to take back the strong Congressional majority they held throughout much of the 20th century. Today we highlight the key Senate races that you should watch in the coming months, and pay attention to especially on Election Day. The key is that the Democrats, as of last month, held a HUGE cash-on-hand advantage of the Republicans: $37 million compared to $19.4 million. This means that Democrats can pour money into key battlegrounds, while the Republicans have limited opportunities to do anything but play defense on their own seats.




--> Virginia - currently held by retiring Senator John Warner (R): Most likely the Democrats' best chance of a seat changing hands. Popular former-governor Mark Warner will be running against less popular former-governor Jim Gilmore. This will be a premiere battleground, but with the increasingly populous northern suburbs favoring the Democrats (and having led to the election of Democratic Governor Tim Kaine and Democratic Senator Jim Webb), Warner should have little trouble succeeding Warner (no relation).




--> Colorado - currently held by retiring Senator Wayne Allard (R): Another great chance for the Democrats to gain a seat. The Democrats have nominated Representative Mark Udall, and the Republicans countered with former Congressman Bob Schaffer. Polling shows Udall with a comfortable lead, and with limited money to work with, the Republicans may sacrifice this seat in the end.




--> New Mexico - currently held by retiring Senator Pete Domenici (R): An incredibly purple state, all three congressmen ran for this seat. The Democrat, Rep. Tom Udall, is Mark's cousin, and is also favored by recent polling to win this seat as well, especially after his opponent, Rep. Steve Pearce narrowly defeated Rep. Heather Wilson, leaving him weaker for the general election matchup.




--> Alaska - currently held by Senator Ted Stevens (R): The former President Pro Tempore of the Senate, Ted Stevens has been around the Senate longer than any Republican in history. Unfortunately for him, Alaskans may be getting sick of him. He'd be 91 by the end of his next term. Also, he's the master of pork-barrel spending; try Googling "bridge to nowhere," and notice how 211,000 pages come up referring to Stevens' proposed plan to build a $398 million bridge to an island of 50 people. Although he's barely had any serious opposition in the past, he'll be running against Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, and Chuck Schumer (chairman of DSCC - Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee) plans to pour a lot of money into this tight race to send Ted Stevens back home on the truck he came in on.





--> New Hampshire - currently held by Senator John Sununu (R): Sununu actually has a fascinating family history, especially his father (of the same name), who served as George H.W. Bush's chief of staff and governor of New Hampshire. He'll be running against former governor Jeanne Shaheen, whom he beat by only 4% back in 2002. New Hampshire has suddenly turned into a prime target for Democrats, since two years ago when both Republican congressmen were knocked out of office. Shaheen has been favored in early polls, and it's tough for Republicans to pour money into a race in New England that they're not expected to win.





*** That would be 5 seats gained already. The Democrats are clinging to a slim majority, and their ultimate goal is to reach that 60 seat majority that eliminates any obstructionism from the Republican minority. Alaska will be very tight, but the other four already mentioned are pretty safe bets for pickups. Lets move on to the other possibilities.









--> Minnesota - currently held by Senator Norm Coleman (R): Is there any state that could elect a former writer for SNL? Well, if professional wrestling doesn't disqualify you, I suppose sketch comedy doesn't either. Coleman won this seat in 2002 in a squeaker after his opponent, Paul Wellstone (a leading progressive in the party), died in a plane crash two weeks before the election. Wellstone was actually one of 11 Senators who voted against both the Gulf War and the use of force in Iraq in 2002. Former VP Walter Mondale took his spot on the ballot, but wasn't able to pull off an emergency victory. Al Franken is now trying his hand at unseating Coleman. This one should be tight, as both candidates are New York-born Jews (although only one wears that on his sleeve...guess who). Having the GOP Convention in the state could boost Coleman.





--> Maine - currently held by Senator Susan Collins (R): Collins is one of the few Republicans left in New England. Her mostly moderate stances may save her, but people thought Lincoln Chafee (R-RI) was safe in 2006, and he still fell under the wave of anti-GOP sentiment. Congressman Tom Allen is her opponent, and the northeast has tended to favor the Democratic Party lately, so expect Schumer to make this a priority after Republicans start to try and curb their losses by pouring money into seats they think they can save (such as this one).







--> Oregon - currently held by Senator Gordon Smith (R): Another moderate Republican in a Democratic state, meaning he'll be a top target. The Democrats nominated a heavyweight to fight him - State Speaker of the House Jeff Merkley (who won after a surprisingly impressive challenge by activist Steve Novick , whose hilarious ads utilized his left hook as a catchy slogan). The dynamics of this race should be similar to those of Maine, with Democratic challengers running against the Republican Party, not their opponents.







--> North Carolina - currently held by Senator Elizabeth Dole (R): Wife of the ex-candidate for President, Dole is not the most popular senator in the country, and is facing a tough challenge by state senator Kay Hagan. The Democrats would love to get rid of Dole, and may put some serious money into this race if polling shows it close. So far it's a question mark. The silver lining for Dole: even if she loses, at least she's sure that her husband has the help of his little blue friend.









--> Mississippi - currently held by Senator Roger Wicker (R): Wicker was appointed by Governor Barbour on New Year's Day to fill the vacated spot of former Senator Trent Lott. Former Governor Ronnie Musgrove will be the Democratic nominee, and is a very strong candidate to compete for what is essentially an open seat. This is another example of how successful Schumer's DSCC philosophy has been - he has recruited genuinely strong candidates for seats all across the country, even those that weren't expected to be competitive. This will be another one to watch throughout the summer, and on election night.