Thursday, June 5, 2008

Hillary on the Ticket? Loyal Soldier or Scorned Woman? 152 Days to Go!


So the buzz right now, as the news media loses its favorite never-ending news story/soap opera, is the possibility of Hillary Clinton being chosen/pushing herself as Barack Obama's running mate. Assuming Barack Obama doesn't concede, as the ever-insane Hillaryis44 continues to demand, he has a tough choice ahead of him. In the coming days, I'll be going through a series of possible running mates that Obama could choose. Today, we start with the big one: Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton.


Pros:

--> She has a lot going for her, most importantly her 18 million votes. Roughly half the Democratic Party wanted her to be their nominee this year, and in order for Obama to win, he needs most of his own party in line behind him. Choosing Hillary could placate the die-hards, and demonstrate to the undecideds that his talk about "unifying" and "healing wounds" isn't just talk, but a real plan to govern. What better way to show this than by choosing his biggest rival (thus far)? And is there any way McCain could win with the entire weight of the Democratic Party unified behind their nominee?

--> She's an incredibly savvy politician, with an enormous fundraising aparatus (which, combined with Obama's, would absolutely bury McCain), and knowledge of the political game.

--> She appeals to the very white, working-class voters, white women, and older Americans that Obama has had so much trouble courting (and will be courted heavily by McCain).

--> She has, in fact, done very well in the key swing states. Polls show her presence on the ticket bumping Obama from a 3% loss to a 7% win in Michigan. She could also boost him in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Missouri, and could put Florida and Arkansas back on the table.

--> Keeping her out of the Senate, where she'd be sure to push her own agenda heavily (perhaps over even Obama's) might be a strategic ploy to enforce his own policy.

--> Bill Clinton.


Cons:

--> She is one of the most polarizing figures in America. 40% of the country refuses to vote for her, and that could very well hurt Obama if some of those voters decide that even having her in the VP slot is too much. Plus, Obama is selling himself as a post-partisan figure, which is something Hillary is simply not.

--> Although her 18 million supporters is a powerful bargaining chip, it is unseemly to "bargain" with the presidential nominee, just as (former) Hillary supporter Governor Rendell of PA remarked yesterday.

--> The worst thing a VP candidate can do is overshadow the top dog, but that's exactly what Hillary Clinton could do. She's a political sensation, and would draw a ton of attention away from Barack, as she did with her incredibly petty, self-centered speech on Tuesday night.

--> Does Obama need her? When push comes to shove, Democrats will go to the polls in November choosing between a continuation of Bush's policies, or a true-blooded liberal. Many experts believe that the party will unite regardless of whether Hillary is on the ticket (assuming she still goes out there and campaigns hard for him anyway - which she will to have any chance at the nomination in 4 years).

--> Would rejecting her demonstrate that Obama is tough? After she ungraciously refused to concede, Obama needs to not be seen as caving. Rather than being a doormat, he might want to be viewed as the Commander-in-Chief and show her the door.

--> While the prospect of her Senate agenda muddying Obama's legislative plans is unnerving, the notion of her and Bill running around the White House is downright terrifying.

--> After all the tough shots she's taken at Obama (and admittedly she had every right to do so, and in some ways may have made him stronger for November), could she legitimately run alongside him, and essentially say, "Oops, I was wrong" about everything she had attacked him for during the primaries?
--> Bill Clinton.


There's a lot to consider in this choice, but Clinton is expected to receive a lot of thought by the Obama camp. Even if he doesn't pick her, there are many ways for Obama to entice Clinton and her supporters. He could offer to make her Secretary of Health and Human services, allowing her to take full reign of the healthcare crisis she cares so deeply about. If she's not the running mate, she could certainly have considerable say in who the VP is; for example, instead of taking the incredibly qualified but Clinton-bashing Governor Richardson, Obama might have to take a staunch Hillary supporter like Governor Strickland of OH or Evan Bayh of IN. The best suggestion I've heard so far is to offer her the next open Supreme Court spot. I love this idea, because the idea of Hillary (a brilliant, passionate, eloquent defender of liberalism) on the bench, matching up with Scalia and Thomas is almost too good to be true. It also gets her out of the political arena, which tends to bring out the worst in her. The only flaw here is that Obama would have to publicly announce this offer to satisfy her supporters, meaning he'd have to run for President with an added target for Republicans to fire at (and nothing brings out the attack dogs like a judicial nominee).


Of course, there's a chance that she just doesn't want the job, and that Obama could offer it to her, and she will graciously decline, then work her heart out for him anyway. Sounds good to me.


Tomorrow: A look at some of the other main contenders for the Veepstakes - a former Republican, a current Republican, women not named Hillary, a few governors, a few Senators, and a Supreme Commander of NATO or two.

Saturday: A look at McCain's VP-selection process. Sneak peak: It's not all old, white men (although most of them are).


Picture of the Day: (courtesy of the Times)
The Obama watching Hillary's "I will be making no decisions" speech. This just makes me love Michelle Obama even more.

Key news of the day:

--> Hillary to drop out Saturday. Tea and crumpets will be served.

--> Obama up 48% to 42% over McCain, according to CBS News

--> Obama has a short, secret conversation with Joe Lieberman (TRAITOR!!!) on the floor of the Senate, apparently trying to convince him of something.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I'm glad I wasn't the only one tickled by Michelle Obama's facial expression in that photo.

You provide a potential list of states that may come into [heavier] play for Obama were Hillary to become the Democratic VP nominee, but are there any states in particular that are projected to shy away from an Obama-Hillary ticket in a big way?