Hillary Rides Again and Historians Try to Pre-Write History! 141 Days to Go!

Let's get right to the news of the day.

--> First off, a pet issue of mine: the Electoral College. Not just because I find it interesting, but more because it's incredibly ineffective. First of all, representation isn't proportional. As any 6th grade math student could tell you, if you assign votes proportionally to each state based on their number of Congressmen, and then add 2 to each state, the ratios change. Tiny states like Idaho with its 3 electoral votes thus have more sway per vote than states like New York.

More importantly, the current system causes most states to be ignored. Presidential candidates have no reason to spend time in: California, Wyoming, Idaho, Montana, Utah, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Maryland, Washington DC, New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Delaware, Rhode Island, or Vermont. In short, that's well over half the union. Why campaign in states that are obviously going to go for one candidate or the other? These voters are disenfranchised because of who they live with. Republican voters in New York have absolutely no say in who the next President will be, just as Democratic voters in Mississippi have no say. Their votes, in the end, count for nothing.

So, how do we correct this problem? There's really two options.

1) A constitutional amendment eliminating the Electoral College and changing the election system to popular vote (or something of that nature). That's what Senator Bill Nelson (D-FL) has in mind. He's introduced legislation to end the Electoral College, institute requirements of offering absentee voting and voting machines that use a paper trail in every state, and set up a system of rotating, regional primaries. All of these are fabulous ideas, but the problem is getting it done. This requires a constitutional amendment - something that's happened only 27 times in our history. Eliminate the Bill of Rights, and that's only 17 times. Two of them cancel each other out (18 and 21), so that's 15. Three (13, 14, and 15) happened as a direct result of a bloody civil war, so that's 12. The 27th Amendment actually took 202 years to ratify after it was initially introduced (a legislative aide in Texas rediscovered it and began a crusade that took a decade to complete). It takes a long time and a ton of political will power to pass a constitutional amendment, so that may not be the best bet for this new system to take hold. Luckily, there's a second option.

2) The National Popular Vote Plan. Under this system, bills will be passed in state legislatures across the country that dictate that those states will assign their electoral votes, not to the winner of their state popular vote, but to the winner of the national popular vote. Once enough states pass this legislation to equal 270 electoral votes or more, it will go into effect, and essentially eliminate the Electoral College. The institution itself will still exist, but it won't matter; presidential elections would henceforth be decided by the will of the people. So far, it's been signed into law in Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland, and been passed by houses in Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Washington. Here in New York, the bill is currently co-sponsored by my own representative, Assemblywoman Sandra Galef. If you agree that this is an important issue, write to your representatives in the state house and tell them that you care about electoral reform.

--> A new book about Barack Obama will be hitting shelves in a few days, this one entitled The Faith of Barack Obama (from the man who brought you The Faith of George W. Bush). Obama's faith has been under fire this whole race so far; from accusations of being a Muslim to controversies surrounding his pastor. This book, which appears mostly positive, could certainly sway some disaffected, anti-McCain evangelicals into the Democratic column this summer. Key to Obama's success will be his ability to win over new voters (Republicans and independents). Of course, McCain plans on doing the same thing, courting angry Hillary Clinton supporters. He's spent the last several days attending fundraisers and meetings with her supporters, and praising her incessantly. Of course, he did also have to cancel a fundraiser with a Texas oilman who once joked about his opponent for governor getting raped. Probably not the best way to win over female voters.

--> Which brings us to an interesting topic: how Hillary Clinton has become a

larger than life figure in this campaign, and has actually reinforced her own legacy since leaving the race, even without doing anything. Both candidates, eager to get her supporters in their column, have spent the last week praising her, talking about how she broke barriers and inspired women across the country and around the world; how she will be instrumental to the work of this country for years to come; how she will always be remembered as a powerful figure for change. Perhaps as importantly, she now holds the keys to one of the biggest swing votes in this election - white women. Obama would do well to put her on the ticket, or at least make her a central member of the campaign, but at the same time, she may be hesitant to tie her now-expanding legacy to a specific candidacy, which would reinforce memories of her as the runner-up.

--> Historians apparently have come to the conclusion that John McCain has the same chance of winning this election as Herbert Hoover in 1932. Factoring in GDP, economic woes, two consecutive Republican terms in office, and the cyclical nature of elections, they seem to believe that this election should be a blowout for Obama. We'll have to see about that, but I suppose it's never too early to start writing the history books (especially after that mad rush on the post-Election Day history textbook deals that always occurs on November 5th).

--> Insiders start to predict that Sam Nunn is the front-runner for Barack Obama's running mate. Nunn has a very interesting background: senator from Georgia for 25 years, Chairman of the Armed Services Committee for 8 (sandwiched by Barry Goldwater and Strom Thurmond in that role), Eagle Scout, etc. He's a fairly conservative Democrat, supporting school prayer, requiring a balanced budget, and the death penalty. However, he was one of the few senators to vote against the Gulf War. His questionable stances on the issues of gay marriage and gays serving openly in the military (he used to be against the latter, but now believes in reexamining the issue) may cause some angst amongst liberals in the party, but he's a foreign policy powerhouse who will bolster Obama's credentials, and most likely put Georgia in play. Jimmy Carter, for one, believes Obama should pick him.

--> Former Clinton campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle is joining the Obama team as the prospective chief of staff for whoever the VP candidate will be. Could be a sign that it'll be Hillary, but then again it could be the opposite - a sign of unity before Barack rejects Clinton as his running mate.

--> Concerned about incoming Republican attacks on Michelle Obama, the campaign has hired Stephanie Cutter, John Kerry's communications director, as her advisor. This demonstrates that she will certainly be in the fight this fall, and like attacks on Hillary in 1992, it may backfire for McCain.

--> Prospective VP candidate Bobby Jindal supports teaching intelligent design, and Newt Gingrich thinks he's the right man for the job.

More tomorrow. Off to work now.